This paper presents a procedure for the probabilistic analysis of time-depe
ndent deflection of a reinforced concrete flexural member subject to a time
-varying load process. Particular consideration is given to simply supporte
d, singly reinforced rectangular beams. The algorithm takes into account co
ncrete maturation, nonlinear creep and shrinkage behavior, and stochastic l
oad process models for both construction and service. While this paper desc
ribes some practical implications of early-age effects (i.e., high early-ag
e construction loads on immature concrete) for serviceability design, the e
mphasis of this paper is on the probabilistic time-dependent deflection ana
lysis technique. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.