E. Ianchovichina et al., Resource use and technological progress in agriculture: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis, ECOL ECON, 38(2), 2001, pp. 275-291
We analyze the global effects of economic and population growth and the imp
act of a slowdown in agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) on agricu
lture and forest resources using a dynamic multi-region computable general
equilibrium model with land use and cover detail. Given the current consens
us about the growth of the world economy, our results suggest that food sec
urity will not be threatened and agricultural activities will not encroach
on forest resources over the next decade. A slowdown in agricultural TFP gr
owth might lead to higher crop prices in all regions, with South East Asia
facing the steepest increases. A slowdown in agricultural TFP growth also m
ight be accompanied by higher conversion rates of forestland to farmland as
well as by greater environmental or ecological damages on the remaining fo
restland. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.