This study examines why firms hold stocks of crude oil, particularly during
price backwardations when spot prices exceed prices for forward delivery.
Using a stochastic control model, this paper shows that the equilibrium val
ue of inventories contains: the conventional Hotelling principle; the conve
nience yield from the classical theory of storage; and an option value rela
ted to price uncertainty. Our empirical results suggest that a convenience
yield and risk premium are important elements of crude oil price backwardat
ions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science BY. All rights reserved.