Risk factors for neck pain: a longitudinal study in the general population

The objective of the study was to examine the 1-year cumulative incidence o f episodic neck pain and to explore its associations with individual risk f actors, including a history of previous neck injury. A baseline cross-secti onal survey of an adult general population sample made up of all 7669 adult s aged 18-75 years, registered with two family practices in South Mancheste r, United Kin.-dom, identified the study population of adults with no curre nt neck pain. This study population was surveyed again 12 months later to i dentify all those who had experienced neck pain during the follow-up period . At follow-up, cumulative 1-year episode incidence of neck pain was estima ted at 17.9% (95% confidence interval 16.0-19.7%). Incidence was independen t of age, but was more common in women. A history of previous neck injury a t baseline was a significant risk factor for subsequent neck pain in the fo llow-up year (risk ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.5), independent of gender and psychological status. Other independent baseline risk factor s for subsequent neck pain included number of children, poor self-assessed health, poor psychological status and a past history of low back pain. We h ave carried out a prospective study in a general population sample and demo nstrated that established risk factors for chronic pain predict future epis odes of neck pain, and shown that in addition a history of neck injury is a n independent and distinct risk factor. This finding may have major public health and medicolegal implications. (C) 2001 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.