Predicting survival in an elderly burn patient population

The purpose of this study was to analyze the outcome of elderly burn victim s and to determine an instrument to predict survival in this population. Ch arts of three hundred and eight burn patients greater than or equal to 60 y r of age who were admitted to a university-based hospital between the years of 1977-1996 were retrospectively analyzed. The mean age of the population was 71.5 +/- 8.6, with a male predominance (1.8 to 1, P < 0.001). The majo rity of the burns were secondary to flame injuries (210, 68.6%). The median body surface area (BSAB) was 13.0% with an in-hospital mortality rate of 3 0.2%. We demonstrated improved survival in patients aged 60-74 yr as compar ed to 1965-1971 national burn survival data. A similar trend could not be s hown in the very old (> 75 yr of age). Only age and BSAB were related to de ath by multiple stepwise forward linear regression. The Baux score, which a dds age and BSAB, was predictive of outcome in 87.0% of our population. In conclusion, this study reinforces the high mortality associated with burn i njuries in the elderly and the superior ability of the Baux score (age + pe rcent burn) in predicting outcome in this population. (C) 2001 Elsevier Sci ence Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.