The consolidation/transition model conceptualizes development as entailing
a cyclical pattern of alternating consolidation and transition phases and p
osits that stage advance is predicted by a specific distribution of reasoni
ng across stages indicative of disequilibrium (more reasoning above than be
low the mode, with a high degree of mixture). The validity of this model wa
s examined in the context of moral reasoning development with the use of st
andard statistical techniques as well as Bayesian techniques that can bette
r account for classification error. In this longitudinal study, 64 children
and adolescents participated in 5 annual administrations of the Moral Judg
ment Interview. The distribution of their reasoning across stages was used
to predict subsequent development. The results support the hypotheses regar
ding cyclical patterns of change and predictors of stage transition and dem
onstrate the utility of Bayesian techniques for evaluating developmental ch
ange.