A predictive model of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) biomass is coupled
to a eutrophication model of Chesapeake Bay. Domain of the model includes
the mainstem of the bay as well as tidal portions of major embayments and t
ributaries. Three SAV communities are modeled: ZOSTERA, RUPPIA, and FRESHWA
TER. The model successfully computes the spatial distribution and abundance
of SAV for the period 1985-1994. Spatial distribution is primarily determi
ned by computed light attenuation. Sensitivity analysis to reductions in nu
trient and solids loads indicates nutrient controls will enhance abundance
primarily in areas that presently support SAV. Restoration of SAV to areas
in which it does not presently exist requires solids controls, alone or in
combination with nutrient controls. For regions in which SAV populations ex
ist at the refuge level or greater, improvements in SAV abundance are expec
ted within 2 to 10 years of load reductions. For regions in which no refuge
population exists, recovery time is unpredictable and will depend on propa
gule supply.