The economics of 'more research is needed'

Background Results from epidemiology and other health research affect milli ons of life-years and billions of dollars, and the research directly consum es millions of dollars. Yet we do little to assess the value of research pr ojects for future policy even amid the ubiquitous assertions that 'more res earch is necessary' on a given topic. This methodological proposal outlines the arguments for why and how ex ante assessments can inform us about the value of a particular piece of further research on a topic. Methods Economics and decision theory concepts-cost-benefit analysis and pr obability-weighted predictions of outcomes-allow us to calculate the payoff from applied health research based on resulting decisions. Starting with o ur probability distribution for the parameters of interest, a Monte Carlo s imulation generates the distribution of outcomes from a particular new stud y. Each true value and outcome are associated with a policy decision, and i mproved decisions are valued to give us the study's contribution as applied research. Results The analysis demonstrates how to calculate the expected value of fu rther research, for a simplified case, and assess whether it is really warr anted. Perhaps more important, it points out what the measure of the value of a further study ought to be. Conclusions It is quite possible to improve our technology for assessing th e value of particular pieces of further research on a topic. However, this will only happen if the need and possibility are recognized by methodologis ts and applied researchers.