Screening for high utilizing somatizing patients using a prediction rule derived from the management information system of an HMO - A preliminary study
Rc. Smith et al., Screening for high utilizing somatizing patients using a prediction rule derived from the management information system of an HMO - A preliminary study, MED CARE, 39(9), 2001, pp. 968-978
Citations number
43
Categorie Soggetti
Public Health & Health Care Science","Health Care Sciences & Services
BACKGROUND. Somatization is a common, costly problem with great morbidity,
but there has been no effective screening method to identify these patients
and target them for treatment.
OBJECTIVES. We tested a hypothesis that we could identify high utilizing so
matizing patients from a management information system (MIS) by total numbe
r of visits and what we termed "somatization potential," the percentage of
visits for which ICD-9 primary diagnosis codes represented disorders in the
musculoskeletal, nervous, or gastrointestinal systems or ill-defined compl
aints.
METHODS. We identified 883 high users from the MIS of a large staff model H
MO as those having six or more visits during the year studied (65th percent
ile). A physician rater, without knowledge of hypotheses and predictors, th
en reviewed the medical records of these patients and identified somatizing
patients (n = 122) and nonsomatizing patients (n = 761). In two-thirds of
the population (the derivation set), we used logistic regression to refine
our hypothesis and identify predictors of somatization available from the M
IS: demographic data, all medical encounters, and primary diagnoses made by
usual care physicians (ICD-9 codes). We then tested our prediction model i
n the remaining one-third of the population (the validation set) to validat
e its usefulness.
RESULTS. The derivation set contained the following significant correlates
of somatization: gender, total number of visits, and percent of visits with
somatization potential. The c-statistic, equivalent to the area under the
ROC curve, was 0.90. In the validation set, the explanatory power was less
with a still impressive c-statistic of 0.78. A predicted probability of 0.0
4 identified almost all somatizers, whereas a predicted probability of 0.40
identified about half of all somatizers but produced few false positives.
CONCLUSIONS. We have developed and validated a prediction model from the MI
S that helps to distinguish chronic somatizing patients from other high uti
lizing patients. Our method requires corroboration but carries the promise
of providing clinicians and health plan directors with an inexpensive, simp
le approach for identifying the common somatizing patient and, in turn, tar
geting them for treatment. The screener does not require clinicians' time.