A risk factor index predicting adolescent cigarette smoking: A 7-year longitudinal study

The authors used longitudinal data to develop a risk factor index (RFI) for the prediction of smoking behavior in youth. Students were followed yearly from 6th through 12th grades in a prospective longitudinal study. Ten risk factors were identified and combined into an RFI. Data were analyzed with a generalized estimating equations approach. The RE predicted both concurre nt smoking and use of cigarettes in the succeeding year. It further predict ed whether a youth would smoke at any point during his or her school career . Prediction was better for boys than for girls. Furthermore, the RFI bette r predicted heavy smoking than any use of cigarettes. The RFI could be usef ul in selecting youth for intensive prevention and early intervention effor ts. Results also suggest the importance of further examination of gender di fferences in smoking behavior.