Janssen has shown that drivers adopt slightly higher speeds and shorter fol
lowing distances over the year after they switch from non-use to use of sea
t-belts. Does such behavioural adaptation continue to grow, so that the ben
efit for seat-belt users becomes dubious? One problem in answering this has
been the weak theoretical basis of behavioural adaptation. In this paper,
Fuller's learning model is developed as an alternative. The sharp braking a
ssociated with near-misses and other circumstances pitches an unbelted moto
rist towards the internal fittings of the automobile, thus eliciting rapidl
y accelerating visual expansion leading to defensive and fear responses. Th
is looming phenomenon acts as a negative reinforcer by which safer driving
behaviours become learnt. Seat-belt use removes looming. Learning due to ne
gative reinforcement is persistent, so those switching from non-use to use
of seat-belts only lose their safer driving behaviours over a long time. Al
so, in the years after seatbelt legislation is introduced increasing number
s of new licence-holders will have always used seat-belts, so looming will
never affect their learning. This analysis suggests that seat-belt use has
dubious long-term effectiveness for motorists, while engendering a more dan
gerous roadway environment for non-motorists. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd
. All rights reserved.