WEIGHT CHANGE AND DIABETES INCIDENCE - FINDINGS FROM A NATIONAL COHORT OF US ADULTS

To examine how long-term patterns of weight change affect the risk for diabetes, especially non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, the aut hors examined the relation of weight change over a period of about 10 years (from the baseline examination in 1971-1975 until the first foll ow-up examination in 1982-1984) to the 9-year incidence of diabetes me llitus (1984-1992) in a national cohort of 8,545 US adults from the Na tional Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Followup Study. Diabetes incidence was identified from death certificates, hosp italization and nursing home records, and self-report, In this cohort, 487 participants developed diabetes, The hazard ratios were 2,11 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-3.18) for participants who gained 5-<8 kg, 1.19 (95% CI 0.75-1.89) for participants who gained 8-<11 kg, 2.57 (95% CI 1.84-3.85) for participants who gained 11-<20 kg, and 3.85 (9 5% CI 2.04-7.22) for participants who gained 20 kg or move compared wi th participants whose weights remained relatively stable, The authors found no evidence that the results differed by age, sex, or race, They estimated that the population attributable risk was 27% for weight in creases of 5 kg or more. Results from this study and other recent stud ies suggest that the increase in body mass index in the United States that occurred during the 1980s may portend an increase in the incidenc e of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus with important public hea lth consequences in future years.