Es. Ford et al., WEIGHT CHANGE AND DIABETES INCIDENCE - FINDINGS FROM A NATIONAL COHORT OF US ADULTS, American journal of epidemiology, 146(3), 1997, pp. 214-222
To examine how long-term patterns of weight change affect the risk for
diabetes, especially non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, the aut
hors examined the relation of weight change over a period of about 10
years (from the baseline examination in 1971-1975 until the first foll
ow-up examination in 1982-1984) to the 9-year incidence of diabetes me
llitus (1984-1992) in a national cohort of 8,545 US adults from the Na
tional Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Followup
Study. Diabetes incidence was identified from death certificates, hosp
italization and nursing home records, and self-report, In this cohort,
487 participants developed diabetes, The hazard ratios were 2,11 (95%
confidence interval (CI) 1.40-3.18) for participants who gained 5-<8
kg, 1.19 (95% CI 0.75-1.89) for participants who gained 8-<11 kg, 2.57
(95% CI 1.84-3.85) for participants who gained 11-<20 kg, and 3.85 (9
5% CI 2.04-7.22) for participants who gained 20 kg or move compared wi
th participants whose weights remained relatively stable, The authors
found no evidence that the results differed by age, sex, or race, They
estimated that the population attributable risk was 27% for weight in
creases of 5 kg or more. Results from this study and other recent stud
ies suggest that the increase in body mass index in the United States
that occurred during the 1980s may portend an increase in the incidenc
e of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus with important public hea
lth consequences in future years.