This paper develops a probabilistic analysis framework to predict the fatig
ue reliability of laminated composites and applies it to tapered composites
used in rotorcraft structures. The method combines finite-element analysis
, composite laminate analysis, fatigue failure modeling, and first-order re
liability analysis to achieve this objective. This methodology is demonstra
ted on a composite helicopter rotor hub test specimen with thick, thin, and
tapered regions. The specimen is subjected to centrifugal and oscillatory
bending loads. The failure mechanism observed for this type of fatigue load
ing is an initial tension crack followed by internal delamination at the th
ick-to-taper transition, where internal ply drop-offs occur. The proposed m
ethod predicts the probability of delamination initiation for such rotor hu
bs. The method is validated using full-scale test results.