Reciprocity, triangularity, and cooperation in the Middle East, 1979-97

Does bilateral reciprocity or great-power influence (or both) promote the e mergence of international cooperation in regional conflicts? Using machine- coded events data and vector autoregression, time-series analysis of 12 int ernational dyads in the Middle East between 1979 and 1990 and 1991 and 1995 found bilateral reciprocity widespread in both time periods, characterizin g nearly all dyads of sustained conflict and a majority of other dyads with various power and proximity characteristics. Significant triangular respon ses to U.S. actions occurred in only a few cases, although key ones-Iraq wi th its neighbors and Israel with Palestine. Neither bilateral reciprocity n or triangular response predicted changes in long-term conflict and cooperat ion. Rather, the presence of one or both of these response patterns appeare d to be necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for regional states to in crease long-term cooperation.