Patriotism or opinion leadership? The nature and origins of the "rally 'round the flag" effect

In this study, the "rally effect"-the propensity for the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during internati onal crises-is measured by considering the changes in presidential populari ty following all 193 Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1933 an d 1992 as identified by the Correlates of War project. Summary analyses fin d minor, statistically insignificant rallies associated with uses of force, although sizable rallies are associated with particular subcategories of m ilitary crises. However, larger rallies are associated with the United Stat es as both revisionist and originator of the dispute, with the initiation o f a full interstate war, and with prominent headline placement in the New Y ork Times. Regression analyses indicate that rallies are more likely when t hey are associated with White House statements and bipartisan support for t he administration's policies. Findings suggest that the size and appearance of a rally depends primarily on how the crisis is presented to the public in terms of media coverage, bipartisan support, and White House spin.