Low-frequency waves of inflation and economic growth: Digital spectral analysis

Modem digital spectral analysis confirms that very noisy inflation and econ omic growth series share similar to9- and similar to 18-year business and b uilding cycle signals, but that inflation alone displays the additional sim ilar to 28- and similar to 56-year rhythms of the long wave. The growth cyc le that accounts for the greatest variance is one of similar to6 years, pro bably associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations. Dis cussion of these results leads to clarification of major sources of confusi on in the longwave literature, and to confirmation of the hypothesis that m ode-locked endogenous rhythms may have their timing controlled by an exogen ous pacemaker that links inflation and growth. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science In c. All rights reserved.