Climate changes in the 21st century over the Asia-Pacific region simulatedby the NCAR CSM and PCM

The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two co upled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical green house gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended thro ugh the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usu al case (BAU, CO(2)approximate to 710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO(2)approximate to 540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific reg ion (10 degrees -60 degreesN, 55 degrees -155 degreesE) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3- 5 degreesC in winter and 2-3 degreesC in summer over most Asia. Under the S TA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0 degreesC in winter and by 0.5 degreesC in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulati on over the Asia-Pacific domain. While the regional precipitation changes f rom single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of similar to 30 N and similar to 10% decreas es south of similar to 30 degreesN over the Asia-Pacific region in winter a nd 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation sugges ts a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM en semble simulations show small changes in the runoff.