The impact of national tides and district-level effects on electoral outcomes: The US Congressional elections of 1862-63

We examine the U,S. Congressional elections of 1862-63, which resulted in a stunning setback for President Abraham Lincoln and the incumbent Republica n Party. After the electoral "dust" had cleared, the Republicans lost contr ol of the House, as their share of seats declined from 59 percent to just o ver 46 percent, While historians contend that the national electorate's gen eral unhappiness with the war effort produced a largely systematic backlash against all Republican candidates, we explore the impact of both national tides and district-level effects on electoral out-comes, Specifically, we h ypothesize that the emergence of quality challengers, district-specific war casualties, and the timing of the midterm elections in conjunction with ch anging national conditions influenced individual electoral fortunes. Our em pirical analysis confirms each of these expectations. More generally, our r esults provide support for modern-theories of electoral outcomes in a previ ously unexplored historical context and suggest several potential avenues f or further research.