Predictors of low back pain onset in a prospective British study

Objectives. This study examined predictors of low back pain onset in a Brit ish birth cohort. Methods. Univariate and multivariate analyses focused on individuals who ex perienced onset of low back pain at 32 to 33 years of age (n = 571) and ind ividuals who were pain free (n = 5210). Participants were members of the 19 58 British birth cohort. Results. Incident pain was elevated among those with psychological distress at 23 years of age (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.52, 95% confidence interv al [Cl] = 1.65, 3.86) and among persistent moderate or heavy smokers (adjus ted OR = 1.63, 95% Cl = 1.23, 2.17). Significant univariate associations in volving other factors (e.g., social class, childhood emotional status, body mass index, job satisfaction) did not persist in multivariate analyses. Conclusions. This prospectively studied cohort provides evidence that psych ological distress more than doubles later risk of low back pain, with smoki ng having a modest independent effect. Other prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings before implications for low back pain prevention can be assessed.