Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: a sensitivity analysis ofalternative scenarios

Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little, if any, sensitivity analysis to identify the factor s affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impre ssion of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits u nderstanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic a nd carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Cl ean Energy Future study (Interlaboratory Working Group, 2000). Its 19 sensi tivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and suppl y-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajecto ries are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist in the United States to reduce carbon emissions and sa ve society money. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.