The evolution of the stress field in the area of the northern Aegean Sea du
ring the 20th century has been studied. The area is dominated by dextral st
rike-slip faulting and is characterized by frequent strong earthquakes. Cou
lomb stress changes (Delta CFF) were calculated assuming that earthquakes c
an be modelled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking
into account both the coseismic slip in large (M greater than or equal to 7
.0) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress build-up along the major fault
segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip fa
ults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the large events. We evaluate
whether these stress changes brought a given large earthquake closer to, or
farther from, failure. It was found that each of the large events occurred
in regions of increased calculated Coulomb stress. Moreover, the majority
of smaller events for which reliable fault-plane solutions are available we
re also located in areas of positive Delta CFF. By extending the calculatio
ns to 2020, and assuming that no additional large (M greater than or equal
to 7.0) earthquake occurs between 1999 and 2020, possible sites of future l
arge earthquakes are identified.