The objective of this study was to identify population-based characteristic
s that can predict and explain variations in secure psychiatric bed use at
health authority level in England. Variables that characterize differences
between health authority areas were first identified using factor analysis.
A subset of these was then used in multiple regression analysis to predict
variations in total secure bed days. A measure of the supply of Supported
housing was also entered into the model. Four-fifths of variation could be
explained by Black ethnicity, Asian ethnicity, population density, number o
f people aged over 65, number of people single/widowed/divorced, number of
people registered as permanently sick, and number of new registrations of d
rug use. The fit of the model was particularly good in inner London and oth
er urban areas, but poorer in rural and 'maturer' areas. The addition of su
pported housing significantly increased the variation explained. Population
-based data can be used to explain much of the variation in secure bed use,
although the model is less satisfactory for non-urban areas. The supply of
supported housing is associated with greater secure bed use.