Continuity and transformation in Northeast Asia and the end of American exceptionalism: A long-range outlook and US policy implications

In the next half century Northeast Asia will undergo a profound transformat ion. Yet, enduring continuities will remain that will continue to fundament ally influence the emerging security order. Perhaps the most important phen omenon will be not only the rise of China, but the concomitant relative dec line of the US that will lead to the end of the special role and position t he LIS has occupied since 1945. Korea and China will both be unified, remov ing the two most critical hot spots in the region. China will become a rich developed nation and will more aggressively seek its perceived rightful gr eat-power position in the region and the world. Unified Korea will attempt to remain a neutral nexus in the region, but will be unable to do so and in stead be inevitably drawn to the Chinese sphere unless the US takes active measures to keep it in the US camp. Japan will be ravaged by a ruinous demo graphic trend that exacerbates a poor geographical basis for a great power and become a second-rate power more than ever dependent on the US for secur ity. The emergent order will be a regional bipolar balance of power between China and the US. Russia and unified Korea are possible members of the Chi nese bloc while Japan will be the critical partner to the US bloc. The bala nce of power situation will be structurally stable and contribute to the ma intenance of peace and stability if allowed to mature.