Numerical weather prediction over the Eastern Caribbean using Florida State University (FSU) global and regional spectral models and multi-model/multi-analysis super-ensemble

A month-long short-range numerical weather prediction experiment using the Florida State University's (FSU) global and regional models and the multi-m odel/multi-analysis super-ensemble over the Eastern Caribbean domain is pre sented in this paper. The paper also investigates weather prediction capabi lities of FSU global and regional models by examining the root mean square errors (RMSE) for the wind and precipitation fields. Super-ensemble forecasting, a new statistical approach to weather forecasti ng, is used over this domain. Here, forecasts from a number of numerical mo dels provide the input and statistical combinations of these forecasts prod uce the super-ensemble forecast. A similar approach is used for the precipi tation field where one model using different rain rate algorithms is used t o generate different model outputs. The results show that the super-ensemble method produces forecasts that are superior to those obtained from the ensemble members.