PREDICTING THE EFFECTS OF MARKET REFORM IN ZIMBABWE - A STATED PREFERENCE APPROACH

A stated preference approach is used to predict likely responses to ma rket reform in Zimbabwe. A random utility model is estimated using dat a on consumers' stated preferences for alternative types of maize meal . The model is used to predict demand patterns resulting from market r eforms. Predicted demand is then compared with actual demand following market reforms. An analysis of the welfare effects of alternative pol icy scenarios shows that coupling the removal of consumer maize subsid ies with improved access to a broader range of maize meal products ame liorated many of the adverse effects of subsidy removal, especially fo r lower-income groups.