Er. Guzman et al., A comparison of sonographic cervical parameters in predicting spontaneous preterm birth in high-risk singleton gestations, ULTRASOUN O, 18(3), 2001, pp. 204-210
Objectives To assess the role of cervical sonography and to compare various
sonographic cervical parameters in their ability to predict spontaneous pr
eterm birth in high-risk singleton gestations.
Design A prospective cohort of 469 high-risk gestations were longitudinally
evaluated between 15 and 24 weeks' gestation on 1265 occasions with transv
aginal cervical sonography and transfundal pressure. The cervical parameter
s obtained were funnel width and length, cervical length, percent funneling
and cervical index. The information obtained was used for patient manageme
nt. Restriction of physical activities was initiated at cervical lengths of
less than or equal to 2.5 cm with cerclage as an option for cervical lengt
hs of less than or equal to 2.0 cm.
Results Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that a cerv
ical length of : 2.S cm between 1 S and 24 weeks' gestation was equal to th
e other sonographic cervical parameters in its ability to predict spontaneo
us preterm birth. The sensitivities for delivery at < 28, < 30, < 32 and <
34 weeks' gestation were 94%, 91%, 83% and 76%, respectively, while the neg
ative predictive values were 99%, 99%, 98% and 96%, respectively. The place
ment of a cerclage did not influence the positive and negative predictive v
alues. In comparison to women with other risk factors, cervical length was
best in the prediction of Preterm birth in women with a prior mid-trimester
loss; an optimal cut-off of less than or equal to 1.5 cm had sensitivities
for delivery at < 28, < 30, < 32 and < 34 weeks'gestation of 100%, 100% 92
% and 81%, respectively. The rate of preterm delivery at < 34 weeks' gestat
ion increased dramatically when the cervical length was <less than or equal
to> 1.5 cm. Cervical length was the only independent variable that entered
the logistic regression model for the prediction of preterm delivery at <
34 weeks' gestation.
Conclusions In high-risk singleton gestations a cervical length of <less th
an or equal to> 2.5 cm was equal to other sonographic cervical parameters i
n its ability to predict spontaneous preterm birth and was better for the p
rediction of earlier forms of prematurity (at < 28 and < 30 weeks) than lat
er forms (at < 32 and < 34 weeks). The optimal cervical lengths and their p
erformance for predicting prematurity may be influenced by obstetric risk f
actors.