It is hypothesized that the extent and severity of fibrosis and cellularity
found on lung biopsy determine the prognosis and response to therapy in id
iopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The objective of this study was to deter
mine which histopathologic features predict survival in IPF. We prospective
ly studied 87 patients with usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) confirmed by
surgical lung biopsy. Four pathologists independently graded the extent an
d severity of specific histopathologic features. We used Cox proportional-h
azards models to assess the effect of histopathologic patterns on patients'
survival, The effects of age, sex, and smoking were also included in the a
nalysis. Sixty-three patients died during the 17-yr study period. Survival
was longer in subjects with lesser degrees of granulation/connective tissue
deposition (fibroblastic foci). The degree of alveolar space cellularity,
alveolar wall fibrosis, and cellularity did not affect survival. A history
of cigarette smoking, the level of dyspnea, and the degree of lung stiffnes
s at presentation were also shown to be independent factors predicting surv
ival. The extent of fibroblastic foci present on lung biopsy predicts survi
val in IPF. These findings support the hypothesis that the critical pathway
to end-stage fibrosis is not "alveolitis" but rather the ongoing epithelia
l damage and repair process associated with persistent fibroblastic prolife
ration. Controlling these processes, rather than stopping inflammation, app
ears most important in preventing progressive disease and the fatal outcome
common in IPF.