INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF RAINFALL AND CORN YIELDS IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL

Interannual variations of rainfall in Northeast (NE) Brazil are studie d giving emphasis to the unusually heavy rainfall during 1984 and 1985 . It is found that a more southward location of the Inter-tropical Con vergence Zone is probably responsible for the higher rainfall in 1984 and 1985. In 6 of the 9 states, rainfall correlates significantly with corn yields. In 7 of the 9 states, the Southern Oscillation (SO) inde x shows a strong positive correlation with annual corn yields. This su ggests that the SO index can be used to predict annual corn yields in NE Brazil. The feasibility of predicting annual corn yields in Northea st Brazil from prior observations of the Southern Oscillation index is examined. It is found that good success can be obtained in some state s. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.