On the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon: co-integration and error-correction models

This paper investigates the relationship between electrical energy consumpt ion and climate factors in Lebanon. The study is performed in two periods. The first period extends from 1992 to 1996 when power rationing was impleme nted. The second period extends from 1997 to 1999 when rationing was drasti cally reduced. Also, each period is divided into a winter and a summer seas on. In the first period, climate factors such as temperature, relative humi dity and clearness index are found not to influence the electrical energy c onsumption due to widespread rationing and the regression coefficient shows inconsistencies and are not in the anticipated direction. In the second pe riod, temperature has a significant effect on electrical energy consumption in the summer season, while this effect is not apparent in the winter. Als o, the relative humidity and clearness index coefficients are found to be n egative for the winter season and positive for the summer season. Furthermo re, two co-integration tests show that the variables are co-integrated indi cating the existence of long run relationships among them. The short run re lationships are also estimated through error correction models. Copyright ( C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.