Effects of experience and uncertainty during dynamic decision making

The decision response times in a dynamic tactical scenario in which partici pants interacted with a virtual command-post environment was investigated. Fifty-two Marines with varying amounts of command-post experience assessed the situation as it developed, determined tactical leverage points, formed a plan of action, and submitted battle orders. Two scenarios were studied-e ach differed in the level of certainty in the information provided. The tac tical decision process was modeled and analyzed in the following sequential , cognitive stages: situation assessment, course of action selection, cours e of action execution. Results show that the time required to assess the si tuation was significantly longer (p < 0.05), for the high-experience group than the low-experience group. However, once the assessment was complete, t he selection of a course of action (COA) was significantly faster for the h igh-experience group than the low-experience group. In addition, COA select ion under conditions of low certainty was significantly longer than under c onditions of high certainty. Time required for COA execution indicated a si gnificant main effect of experience (p < 0.05), a main effect of task certa inty approaching statistical significance (p = 0.067), and a statistically significant interaction (p < 0.05). These results indicate that the time ne eded to execute the COA, once determined, is significantly less for the hig hly experienced individuals under conditions of low certainty. However, und er the conditions of high certainty, no statistically significant time diff erences were found based upon the experience level. The high-experience gro up was significantly more accurate than the low-experience group for develo ping an appropriate COA. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved .