Modeling of North Pacific climate variability forced by oceanic heat flux anomalies

Potential predictability of low-frequency climate changes in the North Paci fic depends on two main factors. The first is the sensitivity of the atmosp here to ocean-induced anomalies at the sea surface in midlatitudes. The sec ond is the degree of teleconnectivity of the tropical low-frequency variabi lity to midlatitudes. In contrast to the traditional approach of prescribin g sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, the response of a coupled atmosp heric general circulation (CCM3)-mixed layer ocean model to oceanic perturb ations of the mixed layer heat budget is examined. Since positive oceanic h eat flux perturbations partially increase SST anomalies (locally), and part ially are vented directly into the atmosphere, expressing boundary forcing on the atmosphere by prescribing upper-ocean heat flux anomalies allows for better understanding of the physical mechanism of low-frequency variabilit y in midlatitudes. In the framework of this approach SST is considered to b e a part of the adjustment of the coupled system rather than an external fo rcing. Wintertime model responses to mixed layer heat budget perturbations of up to 40 W m(-2) in the Kuroshio extension region and in the tropical ce ntral Pacific show statistically significant anomalies of 500-mb geopotenti al height (Z500) in the midlatitudes. The response to the tropical forcing resembles the well-known Pacific-North American pattern, one of the leading modes of internal variability of the control run. The amplitude of the Z50 0 geopotential height reaches 40 m in the region of the Aleutian low. The r esponse of Z500 to forcing in the Kuroshio Current extension region resembl es the mixture of western Pacific and Pacific-North American patterns, the first two modes of the internal variability of the atmosphere. In midlatitu des this response is equivalent barotropic, with the maximum of 80 m at (60 degreesN, 160 degreesW). Examination of the vorticity and thermodynamic bu dgets reveals the crucial role of submonthly transient eddies in maintainin g the anomalous circulation in the free atmosphere. At the surface the response manifests itself in changes of surface temperat ure and the wind stress. The amplitude of response to the tropical forcing in the SST field at the Kuroshio Current extension region is up to 0.3 K (i n absolute value) that is 2 times weaker than SST anomalies induced by midl atitude forcing of the same amplitude. In addition, the spatial structures of the responses in the SST field over the North Pacific are different. Whi le tropical forcing induces SST anomalies in the central North Pacific, the midlatitude forcing causes SST anomalies off the east coast of Japan, in t he Kuroshio-Oyashio extension region. Overall, remote tropical forcing appe ars to be effective in driving anomalies over the central North Pacific. Th is signal can be transported westward by the oceanic processes. Thus tropic al forcing anomalies can serve as a precursor of the changes over the weste rn North Pacific. In the case of midlatitude forcing, the response in the wind stress field a lters Ekman pumping in such a way that the expected change of the oceanic g yre, as measured by the Sverdrup transport, would counteract the prescribed forcing in the Kuroshio extension region, thus causing a negative feedback . This response is consistent with the hypothesis that quasi-oscillatory de cadal climate variations in the North Pacific result from midlatitude ocean -atmosphere interaction.