The effects of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading

This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on stream flow a nd nutrient loading in six watersheds of the Susquehanna River Basin using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The model was used to si mulate changes in stream flow and nutrient loads under a transient climate change scenario for each watershed. Under an assumption of no change in lan d cover and land management, the model was used to predict monthly changes in stream flow and nutrient loads for future climate conditions. Mean annua l stream flow and nutrient loads increased for most watersheds, but decreas ed in one watershed that was intensively cultivated. Nutrient loading sligh tly decreased in April and late summer for several watersheds as a result o f early snowmelt and increasing evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal va riability of stream flow and nutrient loads under the transient climate sce nario indicates that different approaches for future water resource managem ent may be useful.