Estimating the direction of innovative change based on theory and mixed methods

In predicting the direction of innovative change the question arises of the valid measurement of yet unknown variables. We developed and applied a res earch method that combines qualitative and quantitative elements in one int erview format and an analysis tool suitable for these data. An important ch aracteristic of the method is the use of a model based on more universal fo rces underlying the direct interests in a product of the stakeholders in a system. This allows directed statements, with a provocative and sometimes a trade-off character, on which the opinion of stakeholders is asked on a qu antitative scale and which are further probed in a standardised qualitative way. A modified spider-web model is developed to present the results in an orderly and comprehensive way. The method is validated on research on the strategic development of the market of scientific communication and informa tion as it is presently developing on the Internet.