Comparing expectations to actual events: the post mortem of a Y2K analysis

This article reviews an analysis performed for a "high-tech" company in mid -1998 to evaluate the potential impacts of Y2K on the company's performance . The authors are no longer directly associated with the company and the re sults have been restated to protect the company's identity. The model perfo rmed better than existing in-house tools, but inconsistency tests uncovered "insider" information that needed to be included in the model. The final s cenarios and associated recommendations indicated response requirements inc ompatible with the time constants of information flows within the company. Like the Titanic moving toward the iceberg, it was already too late for the company to do much more than hope that fate would be kind. The causal dyna mics left little to fate. A "validated" model often becomes part of the pro blem and the feedback (decision-making) system it is attempting to influenc e. To have a successful impact, consultants may need to give up their suppo sed objective position and personally engage themselves in the risk-ridden, internal, political processes of the client organization. Copyright (C) 20 01 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.