The effects of motivational factors on car use: a multidisciplinary modelling approach

Current transport models usually do not take motivational factors into acco unt, and if they do, it is only implicitly. This paper presents a modelling approach aimed at explicitly examining the effects of motivational factors on present and future car use in the Netherlands. A car-use forecasting mo del for the years 2010 and 2020 was constructed on the basis of (i) a multi nominal regression analysis, which revealed the importance of a motivationa l variable (viz., problem awareness) in explaining current car-use behaviou r separate from socio-demographic and socio-economic variables, and (ii) a population model constructed to forecast the size and composition of the Du tch population. The results show that car use could be better explained by taking motivational factors explicitly into account, and that the level of car use forecast might change significantly if changes in motivations are a ssumed. The question on how motivational factors could be incorporated into current (Dutch) national transport models was also addressed. (C) 2001 Els evier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.