H. Meinke et al., Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches, AGR SYST, 70(2-3), 2001, pp. 493-513
The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide comb
ined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of a
gricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the s
cientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming p
ractice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highli
ght some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or
could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-f
arm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly soug
ht after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agri
cultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future
model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications,
nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science o
r extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take sto
ck' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefi
ts can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importa
nce of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between al
l stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful developmen
t and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key
points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) is
sues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling a
pproach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to
aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficient
ly flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from
models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support so
ftware that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextu
alized for any individual client) versus model applications within the cont
ext of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest
that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early
stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups.
This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in t
erms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their require
ments for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give example
s from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas,
low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, s
mall areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic varia
bility, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and
Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, techn
ologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will furthe
r demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by
the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this m
ight eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approac
hes and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in
tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and
socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All ri
ghts reserved.