The impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the economy of western New York

This article examines the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on western New York (WNY). A variety of theoretical persp ectives are reviewed, notably impact assessment. Evidence from a survey of local industrial firms suggests that NAFTA has not played an especially imp ortant role in the various upswings and downswings that have affected the W NY area in the 1990s. In contrast to a number of inquiries that have appear ed in the recent literature, the authors find little evidence to support th e view that WNY has been negatively affected by NAFTA. Instead, the authors ' evidence suggests that NAFTA has had a positive impact in terms of new ex port development, job creation, input sourcing, and sales growth. The artic le concludes with a brief discussion of the empirical and theoretical diffi culties that confront researchers who wish to explore the effects of trade agreements upon regional economies.