Forecasting versus envisioning - A new window on the future

In this essay I examine the ways in which the future has evolved from sweep ing vision to technocratic projection. I argue that despite the centrality of a focus on the future in all of planning, forecasting alone is an inadeq uate and unsatisfying way to arrive at a concept of the future that can tru ly guide planning. In fact, projections of future needs and costs have beco me instruments by which powerful interests justify their efforts to impose their projects on the populace. I close by arguing that modern Forecasting methods nevertheless can be used to explore alternative futures and the pla nning policies that they imply or suggest. In that way, forecasting can act ually become a central part of collaborative planning.