Non-parametric seismic hazard in mines

Seismic hazard analysis methods in mines are reviewed for the purpose of se lecting the best technique. To achieve this goal, the most often-used hazar d analysis procedure, which is based on the classical frequency-magnitude G utenberg-Richter relation, as well as alternative procedures are investigat ed. Since the maximum regional seismic event magnitude m(max) is of paramount i mportance in seismic hazard analysis, this work provides a generic formula for the evaluation of this important parameter, The formula is capable of g enerating solutions in different forms, depending on the assumptions of the model of the magnitude distribution and/or the available information regar ding past seismicity. It includes the cases (i) in which seismic event magn itudes are distributed according to the truncated frequency-magnitude Guten berg-Richter relation, and (ii) in which no specific model of the magnitude distribution is assumed. Both synthetic, Monte-Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues, and actual data from the copper mine in Poland and gold mine in South Africa, are used to demonstrate the discussed hazard analysis techniques. Our studies show that the non-parametric technique, which is independent of the assumed model of the distribution of magnitude, provides an appropriat e tool for seismic hazard assessment in mines where the magnitude distribut ion can be very complex.