Modeling user adoption of advanced traveler information systems: dynamic evolution and stationary equilibrium

This paper models the growth rate and the saturation market penetration lev el for advanced traveler information system (ATIS) products/services with h eterogeneous drivers, The price of using and the benefit gained from ATIS s ervices are considered two key factors in explaining the growth of adoption of ATIS products. The information benefit is measured as the travel time s aving between equipped and unequipped drivers and evaluated by a mixed stoc hastic and deterministic network equilibrium model. A modified logistic typ e growth model is adopted to describe the cumulative adoption of ATIS produ cts over years. The final stationary equilibrium level of ATIS market penet ration is so determined that the value of the information provided will dec line to the point at which no new users will find it advantageous to purcha se that service. The endogenous growth and stationary equilibrium model of market penetration of ATIS services is useful for forecasting the growth pr ocess and the impacts on the system performance of ATIS. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.