A flaw statistics analysis is here developed to account for systematic diff
erences between experimentally observed and theoretically predicted critica
l loads for the initiation of contact-induced radial cracks in brittle coat
ings on compliant substrates. Specific attention is drawn to deviations in
critical load (P-R) data from ideal quadratic dependence on coating thickne
ss (d), i.e. P(R)proportional tod(2), especially at low d values. It is pos
tulated that these deviations are attributable to the existence of distribu
tions in flaw size and location, in relation to the bell-shaped tensile str
ess fields responsible for initiation of the radial cracks at the coating l
ower surface. A statistics-based expression is derived for the mean values
of P-R in terms of flaw density and size distribution. Data from model bila
yers consisting of glass plates of different thicknesses d bonded to polyca
rbonate substrates are used as an illustrative case study. Controlled pre-a
brasion flaws are introduced into the lower glass surfaces before joining i
nto the bilayer configuration, to enable a priori characterization of distr
ibution parameters by image analysis. Finite element modelling is used to d
etermine the tensile stress distribution at the coating lower surface. The
predicted statistics-based P-R(d) function is shown to fit the data within
uncertainty bounds. Implications concerning the continued usefulness of the
ideal, P(R)proportional tod(2), relation for designing ceramic coatings fo
r failure resistance are considered. (C) 2001 Acta Materialia Inc. publishe
d by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.