Objective: To assess the impact of the AIDS epidemic on mortality and house
hold mobility before and after death.
Design: Open community cohort study with a demographic surveillance system
and two sero-epidemiological surveys.
Methods: Ten rounds of demographic surveillance were completed during 1994-
1998 in the study area, which has a population of about 20 000 people in a
rural ward in north-west Tanzania. Households with deaths were visited for
a detailed interview, including a verbal autopsy. Data on HIV status were c
ollected in two surveys of all residents aged 15-44 years.
Results: Mortality rates among HIV-infected adults were 15 times higher tha
n those among HIV-negative adults and HIV/AIDS was associated with nearly h
alf of deaths at ages 15-44 years. Verbal autopsies without HIV test result
s considerably underestimated the proportion of deaths associated with HIV/
AIDS. The mortality probability between 15 and 60 years was 49% for men and
46% for women and life expectancy was 43 years for men and 44 years for wo
men. By their second birthday nearly one-quarter of the new-borns of HIV-in
fected mothers had died, which was 2.5 times higher than among children of
HIV-negative mothers. Mobility of household members before and after death
was high. In 44% of households in which the head died all members moved out
of the household.
Conclusions: In this rural population with HIV prevalence close to 7% among
adults aged 15-44 years during the mid-1990s, HIV/AIDS is having substanti
al impact on adult mortality. A common response to death of a head of house
hold in this community is household dissolution, which has implications for
measurement of the demographic and socio-economic impact of AIDS. (C) 2001
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.