Analysing agricultural policy reforms under transition in Bulgaria

The elaboration of an appropriate incentive system, including measures of a gricultural price and trade policy has important consequences for Bulgarian agriculture. This paper offers a brief picture of the process of reform to wards the establishment of a market economy in Bulgaria, as well as of the main developments in its agricultural sector. An analysis is then presented of the impact of alternative agricultural price and trade policy scenarios for the period up to 2002. The results show that the impact of price and t rade policies is modest when compared to that of technological change and t he increase in incomes. Adoption of the CAP will stimulate production, decr ease demand and have strong adverse effects on consumers and taxpayers and wider negative effects on the competitiveness of the food industry. Thus th e issue of extending financial support for structural policies rather than granting direct aid requires further investigation. (C) 2001 Elsevier Scien ce Ltd. All rights reserved.