THE EFFECT OF AVAILABLE CAPACITY ON JAIL INCARCERATION - AN EMPIRICAL-TEST OF PARKINSONS LAW

The strong positive association between available capacity and incarce ration rates has been interpreted by social scientists as consistent w ith one of two competing hypotheses: (1) that available capacity affec ts rates of incarceration or (2) that capacity levels respond to varia tions in confinement populations, Although these two alternative hypot heses imply different causal mechanisms, it has been difficult to adju dicate between them, in part because of the data and methodologies emp loyed in prior research. This study investigates whether a large incre ase in jail capacity in Orange County, Florida increased daily jail in carceration levels above that expected on the basis of preexisting inc arceration trends and police activity, Results are consistent with the hypothesis that available capacity influences incarceration levels. T he number of daily arrests made by police, however, is of little conse quence in predicting levels of jail incarceration. Taken in total, the se findings suggest that adding additional capacity may act to acceler ate the growth of confinement populations. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science L td.