The clinical manifestations of inherited neurodegenerative diseases are oft
en delayed for periods from years to decades. This observation has led to t
he idea that, in these disorders, neurons die from cumulative damage. A cri
tical prediction of the cumulative damage hypothesis is that the probabilit
y of neuronal death increases with age. However, we recently demonstrated,
in 17 examples of neurodegeneration, that the kinetics of neuronal death ap
pear to be exponential. These examples include both monogenic disorders, su
ch as photoreceptor degenerations, as well as others that are partly or ent
irely acquired (such as the clinical phase of parkinsonism and retinal deta
chment). Exponential kinetics indicate that (i) the risk of death is consta
nt, (ii) death occurs randomly in time and (iii) the death of each neuron i
s independent of other neurons. We use the term 'one-hit model' to refer to
the single catastrophic intracellular biochemical event, analogous to radi
oactive decay, which leads to neuronal death in the diseases we analyzed. H
ere, we examine the major features and implications of the one-hit model an
d provide preliminary evidence that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis also appe
ars to fit this model. We also discuss a testable biochemical hypothesis, t
he mutant steady-state hypothesis, that we proposed to account for the one-
hit model. Finally, we explore six unresolved issues that appear to challen
ge this model. The one-hit model appears to capture a novel principle under
lying many neurodegenerations. Our findings suggest that any consideration
of the biochemical basis of neurodegeneration must include a meticulous exa
mination of the kinetics of cell death.