Jitter-based delay-boundary prediction of wide-area networks

The delay-boundary prediction algorithms currently Implemented by transport protocols are lowpass filters based on autoregressive and moving average ( ARMA) models. However, recent studies have revealed a fractal-like structur e of delay sequences, which may not be well suited to ARMA models. In this paper, we propose a novel delay-boundary prediction algorithm based on a de viation-lag function (DLF) to characterize end-to-end delay variations. Com pared to conventional algorithms derived from ARMA models, the new algorith m can adapt to delay variations more rapidly and share delay's robust high- order statistical information (jitter deviation) among competing connection s along a common network path. Preliminary experiments show that it outperf orms Jacobson's algorithm, which is based on an ARMA model, by significantl y reducing the prediction error rate. To show the practical feasibility of the DLF algorithm, we also propose a skeleton implementation model.