Use of a computer model to identify potential hotspots for dengue fever inNew Zealand

Aims. To describe the areas of potential dengue fever risk in New Zealand f or present climatic conditions and projected scenarios of climate change. Methods. A computer model, the HOTSPOTS System, was developed. This allowed the integration of climatic, topographical, entomological, demographic, tr ade and travel data to generate spatial information describing vector intro duction risk, potential vector distribution and dengue fever risk. Results. Under present climatic conditions, Auckland and Northland, and som e coastal areas of other northern parts of the North Island, have a potenti al risk for dengue outbreaks supported by the vector Aedes albopictus. Gree nhouse gas induced climate change could make these areas also receptive to Aedes aegpti-the more efficient tropical dengue vector-and increase the pot ential distribution of A. albopictus to much of the South Island. Conclusions. Given the introduction of a competent vector, there is an appr eciable risk of dengue fever occurring in New Zealand under present climati c conditions. Greenhouse gas induced climate change would substantially inc rease the magnitude and spatial extent of this risk.