Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in aheterogeneous landscape

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the cur rent UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the in fection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show th at the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all inf luence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The othe r key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess t he history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of contro l strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and ti me.