Scenarios on the future of biotechnology

The major areas of research and development in biotechnology are maturing a t a rapid rate, and may soon converge with one another. These emerging biot echnology areas range from the development of new medicines and drugs, gene tically engineered foods, biologically controlled industrial manufacturing processes, and biologically based computing devices to the creation of new industrial materials and devices based upon biological structures and the u se of biotechnology in food production. Each of these research areas carrie s the potential for strong societal reaction. To explore the potential impa ct of biotechnology on society, two fundamental drivers that influence soci etal acceptance of biotechnology are described. First, the extent to which technological integration proceeds may strongly impact the way society uses and perceives biotechnology. Second, the degree to which the public eventu ally accepts biotechnologically derived products and processes as legitimat e and reliable alternatives to current products may shape both market deman d and public policy. Taken together, these drivers suggest four discrete al ternative scenarios for the future of biotechnology. Implications of these scenarios are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved .