A comparative analysis of the structure and behavior of three gap models at sites in northeastern China

Three gap models, KOPIDE, NEWCOP, and ForClim, were compared with respect t o their structure and behavior at four sites along an elevational gradient on Changbai Mt., northeastern China, under current climate and six climate change scenarios. This study intends to compare the three gap models under identical conditions, using a standardized simulation protocol. The three m odels were originally developed with different backgrounds and for differen t purposes. While they are relatively similar in the level of structural de tail they include, they still differ in many respects regarding the assumpt ions that are made for representing specific ecological processes. The simu lations showed that none of the three gap models provides satisfactory resu lts in all situations; each gap model has strong and weak points in its beh avior. While all models are fairly successful in simulating the composition of dominant species along the gradient under current climatic conditions, their projections under a set of hypothetical scenarios of climatic change diverge rather strongly. The analysis of these simulation results shows tha t several problem areas need to be addressed before any of the models can b e used for a reliable impact assessment. Recommendations for improvements o f the models are made, including the formulation of temperature and drought effects on tree establishment and tree growth, the size of the species poo l, the appropriate choice of patch size and disturbance regimes, and allome tric relationships. When aiming to use gap models under new environmental c onditions, we propose to carefully reconsider their formulations based on o ur knowledge of the relevant processes in the region under concern, instead of using the models in an 'as-is' mode.